MarketLens
Market Overview
The Nasdaq 100 rose for the fourth straight week, powered by high-performing tech stocks, while the S&P 500 finished down 0.5%.
Additionally, the DJI has slid for six straight trading days.
Bitcoin is back above $100,000 after dropping below $96,000 earlier this week.
Here’s a take on the S&P 500 for 2025:
No one can truly forecast what the S&P 500 will do in 2025. The Fed started cutting interest rates in September, and historically, the S&P 500’s performance in the year after the first rate cut has followed one of two paths: either a strong rally or a slide into bear market territory, with no middle ground.
Last week, more stocks declined than rose, while the S&P 500 sits just 1% below its peak—a rare occurrence in the past 25 years that previously led to big drops. While past trends don’t guarantee future ones, it’s worth noting this situation. We’re in a bull market, but volatility is part of the ride.
Looking ahead, the S&P 500 is betting on a “soft landing” without a recession in 2025, supported by strong economic data like low unemployment and solid payrolls. However, it’s trading at a historically high premium compared to global markets.
Is it justified by AI advancements, or are we in a bubble? The world is shifting toward AI, with the U.S. taking the lead. On the other hand, other global markets might start catching up to the S&P 500's performance. Either way, 2025 is likely to bring more market ups and downs.
Economic Insights You Need to Know
The BLS released November’s CPI report on Wednesday, showing inflation increased as expected to 2.7%, up from 2.6% in October.
Core CPI rose 0.3% from October.
The PPI indicated wholesale prices were up 0.4% in November, a bit higher than the 0.2% expectation.
The CME FedWatch tool predicts an 88% chance for a .25% rate cut next week during the Fed’s Dec. 18 meeting.
Stock of the Week: Rigetti Computing, Inc.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) saw its shares jump 41.5% over the past five days. The company develops quantum integrated circuits for quantum computers. Over the past month, its stock is up over 300% following breakthrough announcements in quantum computing and a new partnership with NVIDIA. Rigetti has also benefited from Google’s quantum computing announcement earlier this week.
U.S. Business News
Google made headlines this week after it announced its quantum computing chip “Willow” can solve one of the most complex calculations in five minutes. To put this in perspective, Google claims it would take the world's current fastest supercomputer 10 septillion years (10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years) to solve the same calculation.
NVIDIA is under investigation by the Chinese government for potential anti-monopoly violations. The Chinese government is reportedly examining Nvidia’s 2020 acquisition of Israeli company Mellanox. China had previously approved the acquisition in 2020 and has not specified what component of the merger broke their anti-monopoly laws. This inquiry follows U.S. restrictions on NVIDIA’s AI chip sales to China.
Apple released an iOS 18.2 update integrating ChatGPT with Siri, a move expected to boost iPhone sales and elevate Apple’s position in AI.
Broadcom reported earnings, reporting a 51% increase in revenue and a 23% rise in profits. The company announced it’s expecting an increase in sales of AI products by 65% in Q1 of 2025. Likewise, Broadcom also raised its quarterly dividends to $0.59/share. Its shares were up 24% in response to the report.
GM announced it will no longer be funding the development of their RoboTaxi unit after spending $10 billion on the project. CEO Mary Barra stated they were unable to justify the expense of the Robo Taxi unit and couldn’t progress the project to compete with competitors, such as Waymo and Tesla.
Kroger lost an antitrust case for its $25 billion Albertsons acquisition. The FTC blocked the merger, with chair Lina Khan citing harm to competition. Albertsons is now suing Kroger for billions in damages, including a $600 million termination fee.
Costco beat earnings expectations, led by a 13% rise in e-commerce sales and a 90.4% membership renewal rate. Items like gold, jewelry, and furniture saw double-digit growth.
Walgreens is reportedly negotiating a deal for private equity firm Sycamore Partners to buy the struggling company. If the deal were to go through, Walgreens would no longer be a publicly traded company. Walgreens’ stock, down 80% over five years, rose 17% on the news.
Overseas Updates
The yield gap between U.S. and Chinese government bonds has reached its widest in over a decade. China's 10-year bond yields fell to a record low of 1.77%, reflecting concerns over the country's economic slowdown and deflation, while U.S. yields are up at 4.33%. The widening gap signals a shift in global financial markets, driven by China's economic challenges and expectations of aggressive fiscal policies in the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, a weaker Chinese renminbi pressures Beijing to consider currency devaluation to boost exports.
Israel has ordered its military to reinforce its position inside Syria after seizing territory following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. This move has drawn international condemnation, particularly from Arab states and the UN. Israel's air forces have heavily damaged Syria's military, giving Israel more air control and advantage. Meanwhile, the chaos in Syria has raised concerns about further foreign influence, especially from Israel and Turkey, while the US continues to fight Isis in the region. Tensions persist between Turkey and Israel over the situation.
News in Sports
NFL
Thursday Night Football: The Los Angeles Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers 12-6
Sunday Night Football: The Seattle Seahawks will host the Green Bay Packers
Monday Night Football: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings; Las Vegas Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons
NCAA Football
Playoff Picture:
1. Oregon, 2. Georgia, 3. Boise State, 4. Arizona State., 5. Texas, 6. Penn State, 7. Notre Dame, 8. Ohio State, 9. Tennessee, 10. Indiana, 11. SMU, 12. Clemson
NBA
Western Conference Standings: Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies
Eastern Conference Standings: Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic
Closing Remarks
The S&P 500 is up 27% this year, while the NASDAQ is up 32%.
United Healthcare’s stock has slid over 14% since its CEO was executed in Manhattan.
Elon Musk became the first person to surpass a $400 billion net worth.
Stay with us for more insights next week.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Ashlyn Haringa